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participants

#### Topic provider

China Petrochemical Development Corporation (CPDC) was established in 1969 as a state-owned enterprise under the supervision of the Ministry of Economic Affairs. In 1991, CPDC was listed on the Taiwan Stock Exchange, and in 1994 the company was privatized. CPDC is one of the business units of the Core Pacific Group. Its core business is in the production of petrochemical intermediates and related engineering plastics, synthetic resins, raw materials for chemical fiber and other derivative products. CPDC believes in market orientation and the pursuit of excellence. We continue to innovate and improve the quality of our products and services. To maximize value for our customers and shareholders, CPDC provides products and services that are designed for customer satisfaction while respecting and caring for employees, customers, suppliers and the community. Our ethos focuses on safety and health, saving energy, and respecting the environment with the aim of achieving “zero defects, zero injuries and zero pollution”. We spare no efort to practice sustainable operations and contribute to society.

#### Introduction

This topic is provided by China Petrochemical Development Corporation (CPDC), whose core business is in the production of petrochemical intermediates and related engineering plastics, synthetic resins, raw materials for chemical fiber and other derivative products. The data of this topic is the production record of products, and this product is produced by adopting chemical catalytic reactions. The production record includes operating parameter (A1~A7)and forecast of product conversion（B1~B12), B4 is the main product and B5,B7 is the by-product.

Personnels can determine the changes of future product conversion by referring the known operating parameter, and thus can adjust the operating parameter in order to keep B4- the main product, in the best condition. By doing so, we can reduce the usage of raw materials and improve the productivity of B4.

Everyday we will go through a complete analysis assay of chemical catalytic reactions during Monday to Friday, and we will adjust the parameters refer to the product conversion of the day. By observing the product conversion daily, we can make sure that B4 can remain its best condition.

On this issue, we would like to forecast the product conversion by referring the time trend, mainly the product conversion of B4, B5 and B7, so that we are more likely to adjust the parameter beforehand, to make sure the product conversion can go above the standard.

#### reward

The first place 100,000 discount points of hicloud

The second place 50,000 discount points of hicloud

The third place 50,000 discount points of hicloud

honorable mention 50,000 discount points of hicloud( multiple winners, depends on the final result)

Rewards were provided by Chunghwa Telecom
Note:
1.Hicloud points can redeem service charge. After the discount, the price will be charged at 30% off based on the list price automatically.
2.Chunghwa Telecom deserves the right to make changes to the terms and conditions herein.
The example of calculating points can be referred to https://aidea-web.tw/computing

#### Activity time

Basically, this issue will begin at 12:00 AM Taiwan Standard Time (UTC+8), and the schedule is as follows(DD/MM/YY).

time event
30/09/19 upload deadline of second stage result ( based on only the latest document).
07/10/19 announce the winners

#### Evaluation Criteria

This topic requires forecast of the three columns-B4,B5,B7, and the score evaluation will be based on the following.： A score will be given to each of the three forecasts, and their weighted aggregation will be the final score.

• Score evaluation of the three columns:
• The score evaluation will be divided into two parts, while one calculates the accuracy of the trend forecasting -whether the forecast is right or wrong, the other calculates the deviation of the forecast and the actual value. The sum of the two scores will be the score on this sample, and the column score will be the average score of all samples from different dates.
• Final score:
• The weighted aggregation of the three column scores, which B4:B5:B7=3:1:1

The formula is as follows,

column score:

$$\text{trend}: \text{in each sample, 0.5 points for an accurate forecast and 0 point for an inaccurate one.}$$ $$\text{deviation} = \frac{y_i – {\lvert \hat{y_i} – y_i \lvert}}{y_i} ,$$ $$\text{column score} = {\sum_{i=1}^{n} (\text{trend} + \text{deviation} \times 0.5) \over n },$$ $$\text{where } \hat{y_i} \text{ is the predicted value, and } y_i \text{ is the original value}$$

final score:

$$\text{final score} = \text{column score of B4} \times 0.6 + \text{the column score of B5} \times 0.2 + \text{the column score of B7} \times 0.2$$

#### Rules

• The evaluation result would be based on the final version that you upload. If two teams (or more) got the same evaluation scores, the time they upload would determine the ranking.
• When using external data sets, participants are not allowed to use future data as the basis of the test results. Data sets instructions and references should be stated in the forum for references.
• If there is cheating or fraud during the activity, the team that cheats will be disqualified from the activity and the vacancy would be filled up by other teams in the ranking order.
• Each person can only be in one team, and every single person or team can only hold one account. In other words, duplication participation is not allowed, if found, the user will be disqualified.
• According to the request which is given by the issue provider, only teams of one are allowed to participate in the activity. If the same answer sheet are found during the examination, the participants who owned them will be disqualified from the issue, and all the uploaded data will be deleted.
• Please make sure to keep the result safe so that it will not be copied or stolen by anyone else and thus will not cause the invasion of individual rights.
• As for the rewarding, since this platform considers one account belongs to only one person, the reward can only be given to one person, in other words, only one name can be written on the certificate.
• The score calculation would be divided into two parts:
• Part one (before the registration deadline): The system refers to partial Ground Truth of test data from 03/03/19(DD/MM/YY) to 31/05/19(DD/MM/YY), to examine and calculate the score. The result will be posted on Public Leaderboard.
• Part two (after the registration deadline): The system refers to partial Ground Truth of test data from 01/06/19(DD/MM/YY) to 31/08/19(DD/MM/YY), which accounts for 10% of the entire test data, to examine and calculate the score. The result will be posted on Public Leaderboard.
• Part two(after the upload deadline):The system refers to the Ground Truth collected during the competition from 01/06/19(DD/MM/YY) to 31/08/19(DD/MM/YY), which accounts for 100% of the entire test data, to examine and calculate the score. The result will be posted on Public Leaderboard as reference for the final score and ranking.
• If there is a dispute in the future, the organizer reserves the right to make the final decision.